The UK Public Estate Maintenance Backlog: A ticking time bomb under our public estate

Large parts of the commentary on UK infrastructure have focused on what is seen as a period of gradual decline over the last 15 years. The most recent National Infrastructure Commission report itself noted that ‘while infrastructure performs well in some areas, in others there are significant deficiencies that are holding the UK back’. A recent Institute for Government report (something we discussed in detail in a recent blog) argues that ‘historic underinvestment in capital has hit public services hard’. Decades of underspend have created an issue in terms of backlog maintenance which will require significant capital expenditure to address. 

Backlog maintenance is a measure of the total amount of work necessary to restore a building to its proper state, as well as the cost of the undertaking. It is work that should have already taken place, not future planned maintenance. The Government Property Strategy 2022-2030 identifies this problem directly, stating that ‘there is a significant maintenance challenge across the government estate where backlog maintenance liabilities have been identified’. 

This chimes with the overall quality of the UK estate. 68% of UK Manufacturers surveyed recently believe that the UK national infrastructure has declined in the last 10 years. Without immediate action, the maintenance backlog will continue to grow with more deferred works added to the pile, whilst the cost of addressing these compounds. 

The recent Institute for Government/CIPFA 2023 Performance tracker estimates that the total value of the UK Public Estate maintenance backlog is £37bn. Amalgamating the independently published sources below generates a figure of £35.6bn.  This can be broken down further across various sections of the Public Estate.

The NHS ‘Estates Return Information Report (ERIC) 2021-22’ stated that the total NHS backlog maintenance rose from £9.2bn to £10.2bn, an 11% increase over the past year and representing around 5% of total NHS budget. Of this amount, works estimated to cost £1.8bn are categorised as ‘high risk’.£3.8bn is seen as posing a ‘significant risk’.  A simple forecast could see the NHS estate backlog rise as high as £13.25bn by 2025. The UK lagged behind the OECD more widely in the 2010s, recording a significantly lower level of gross fixed capital formation in healthcare (as a % of GDP).  Such is the level of underinvestment that two NHS hospitals continued to use coal fired boilers until at least 2021.  

England’s educational sector tells a similar story. A 2021 report by the Department for Education set the total maintenance backlog value at £11.4bn, just over 10% of the current education budget, and an increase from £6.7bn in 2017. A 2023 NAO report on the condition of school buildings echoes this. ‘DfE has received significantly less funding for school buildings than it estimated it needed’. Between 2016 - 2023, Dfe spent around £2.3bn per year allocated to maintenance (76%) and major building works (24%), yet in its 2020 spending review recommended a total capital spend of £5.3bn a year to maintain schools and mitigate failures. The report also notes that ‘24,000 school buildings (38% of the total)’ are beyond their design life. More alarmingly, the £11.4bn maintenance backlog figure quoted above does not include ‘the cost of rectifying structural or asbestos-related issues’. 

The UK Road network is also badly affected.  The Asphalt Industry Alliance (AIA)’s 2023 ‘ALARM’ survey estimates that the maintenance backlog value on public highways and carriage ways is £14bn, up from £12.64bn in 2022 and, on average £106m per Local Authority in England. Highway Departments estimate that, even with adequate resourcing and funding, it would take 11 years on average to clear the carriageway maintenance backlog. 

Ultimately, neglecting preventative maintenance leads to higher costs. Immediate operational efficiency can be impacted and eventually expected asset lifetime can decrease.  The recent Reinforced Autoclaved Aerated Concrete problem in schools is a perfect example of the issues currently affecting a public estate in dire need of investment, public, private or a combination of both.

In the late 1990s both the UK Building Research Establishment and the Standing Committee and Structural Safety identified potential issues with RaaC and a further BRE Report in 2002 cited ‘excessive in-service deflections and cracking’. Whilst RaaC buildings were only ever forecast to have a 30 year service life, preventative maintenance may have either helped to ensure safety over their lifetime or have allowed for adequate identification and planning for a new estate, smoothing the cost profile over a longer period and enhancing affordability. Addressing the wider public estate maintenance backlog will require time, effort and capital to restore operational efficiency and to support broader economic activity and growth across the UK.